The Phantom Public

The GOP love-fest in Milwaukee is over. Trump is back on the campaign trail with his new best buddy J.D. Vance. President Biden is hunkered down in Delaware with COVID-19 trying to figure out his next move, which increasingly looks like a departure, though no one is sure. I’m siding with those who think Joe Biden is no longer able to campaign effectively and will most likely lose if his name is on the ballot in November. It’s a lot to think about, a lot to say, and those who are paid to write about it and talk about it are hard at it.

As we look ahead, my biggest concern is that the media will continue to ignore or minimize who Donald Trump is and what he has said and done because they are exhausted by the horror of it all, and don’t believe their audience has much of an appetite to rehash it either.

Here is a case in point:

On July 13, 2024, Donald Trump, the Republican Party’s presumptive nominee, was shot and wounded in the right ear at a campaign rally near Butler, Pennsylvania. It was in all the newspapers. It was, of course, a tragedy and something we hated to see. The bit of blood across his face, the pumped fist in the air, the flag in the background, and the exhortation to “fight, fight, fight” made many of his supporters marvel at his courage, heroism, and toughness. Some were even saying that America hadn’t seen such a brave and tenacious presidential candidate since Teddy Roosevelt in the early 20th century.

Well, there was a presidential candidate in 2008, a Republican by the name of John McCain. Most people will remember that McCain was taken prisoner of war in North Vietnam in October of 1967. He was shot down by a missile over Hanoi, fractured both arms and a leg when he ejected from the aircraft, and nearly downed when he parachuted into a lake. He was transported to the “Hanoi Hilton” where, though badly wounded, his captors wouldn’t treat him.

In a fascinating development, in 1968 his father John S. McCain Jr. was named commander of all U.S. forces in the Vietnam theatre. The North Vietnamese wanted to release McCain for propaganda purposes though he refused unless other prisoners taken before him were also released, which the North Vietnamese would not do. He was subsequently tortured and held as a prisoner of war for five and a half years, until his release in March 14, 1973. His wartime injuries resulted in a permanent disability.

Old news, right? And to suggest that Donald Trump is tougher than John McCain is of course absurd, though not the point. The point is that in July of 2015, Donald Trump, while appearing at an event in Arizona, said of John McCain, “He’s not a war hero…he was a war hero because he was captured. I like people who weren’t captured.”

Here’s the deal: the assassination attempt on Donald Trump was a terrible thing, and under the circumstances one would have expected his supporters to make the most of his supposed brave response. But those in the mainstream media who made too much of his bravery, courage, and toughness in the days following without also mentioning what Donald Trump said about a real American hero like John McCain were doing the country no favours.

At some point, as a part of the narrative, Trump’s attacks on McCain should have been a part of the story; they were not. Perhaps even mention of Trump’s many Vietnam era deferments, and his statement that those who gave their lives to defend America were losers could have been in the mix.

Whatever else happens in this campaign, whoever runs for the Democrats, I am convinced Donald Trump will win if the media fail to report on the now long history of terrible things he has said and done because it is old news. As they search for new angles, new ways to generate advertising revenue, sell newspapers, and generate clicks, I fear they will do nothing to remind the public who this man is because the stories are old, and anyway there are too many of them, and we all know what he’s like, right?

With apologies to Maya Angelou, Donald Trump has been showing us who he is forever. Voters will believe him, and reject him, if the media, and the rest of us, have the patience to repeat the awful stories and reexamine the awful facts that are a matter of public record if only we can overcome our own weariness.

Biden Plans to resume campaigning as more Democrats urge him to quit (New York Times)

Biden is ‘absolutely’ staying in race, campaign chair says (Washington Post)

JD Vance nomination puts Europe on notice (The Hill)

Wave of Hill Dems renews calls for Biden to drop out (Politico)

Trump Goes Off Message in Milwaukee, but Biden Remains an Underdog (Cook Political Report)

In the coming days, it may well be that President Biden will decide that for the sake of having a chance at another Democratic White House, for the sake of down-ballot Democratic races, for the sake of democracy itself, it’s time to walk away. For many of us, I suspect, this seemed the best outcome following his famously disastrous debate performance on June 27th in Georgia. Though, if he goes, it will not be because he had one bad debate; it will be because everything he did after the debate to prove he was still capable proved just the opposite.

He may surprise us by refusing to heed calls from some of the most important voices in the Democratic Party, though I can’t see how anyone would even want to run after such public rejection by so many of his supposed allies. More than that, how could he run a successful campaign when the leadership in his own party is telling him, and announcing publicly, that he is no longer able to do the job? And for those who think that that is not precisely what is being said, if he is incapable of running a credible campaign, he is incapable of serving another four years.

Those who are speaking personally to Biden about leaving, and those who are conspicuously absent in their defence of the President are clearly part of a well-coordinated campaign. The difficult step they have taken, the conspiracy they have engaged in, is to ensure he cannot win as a way to convince him he should not run.

I agree that President Biden should step down and make way for a candidate better able to represent the Democratic Party in the November. The stakes are too high. I also agree it does not appear he was willing to take a hint about stepping down even when it became clear for anyone with eyes and ears that he should.

If Kamala Harris is the candidate or someone else there will be no avoiding that ugly politicking was behind it. Maybe that’s always the case in one way or another and maybe Democrats will hold hands and sing together when they have to.

Even if the outcome is what I think is for the best, I’m not feeling great about this.

Very early Tuesday morning, about 4:40 a.m., the federal byelection in the riding of Toronto-St. Paul’s was called for Conservative candidate Don Stewart. While the margin of victory was small, about 1.5 per cent, the Conservative win, and consequent loss for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals, was a gut punch for the incumbent government currently set to face voters in the next general election in October 2025.

The Liberals have held Toronto-St. Paul’s since 1993 with outgoing Liberal MP Carolyn Bennett having won the seat by around 24 points against her Conservative challenger in the previous general election in 2021. And though the loss is a surprise, the national landscape provided a hint with the Liberal’s main challenger Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives leading by about 20 points in the polls, a margin that has been holding steady for several months.

Still, before things started to go badly for Trudeau, he and his governments had since 2015 been safely on the winning side in what has been called for them “Fortress Toronto,” and this riding in particular. To put a fine point on it, if this seat is not safe for the Liberals, it’s hard to know which seats would be.

Having said that, there is always much chatter about how important byelections really are given that they don’t typically result in a change of government and provide a chance for the electorate to give the government of the day a bit of a kick in the pants without changing who is in charge.

Going into this byelection, according to research conducted by CBC News, voters did in fact site inflation, the lack of affordable housing, and the Israel-Hamas conflict as issues of contention, though many also said they were looking for change and were frankly tired of Trudeau. And there it is.

Toronto Star writer Susan Delacourt noted the frequency of comments by past Liberal voters at the door who said they could not vote for Liberal candidate Leslie Church “because they are keen to see Trudeau leave.”

A great deal of speculation over the past few months has had it that if the Liberals somehow lost this safest of downtown Toronto seats, Trudeau would have to consider stepping down in favour of a new leader who might at least have a chance of righting the ship. Now that this has happened, pressure will certainly build, though he has recently dismissed bad polls by claiming Canadians were not currently in a “decision mode.” Some might say the voters in Toronto-St. Paul’s disagree.

No politician signals departure before it is absolutely necessary for fear of undercutting their ability to get anything at all done, so Trudeau’s comments are likely meaningless. What has meaning is the kind of calculus one might undertake in these sorts of situations. Does it make sense for Trudeau to lead his party to the polls in the next general election and in doing so “take the fall” in what is likely to be a very bad loss for the Liberals. In doing so, the argument goes, he could shield a new leader from permanent damage, from the stench of loss. Or could a new leader make a difference, even if only to keep the Conservatives from forming a majority?

Yes, with the next election over a year away much could change. The United States could be in the middle of the next Trump presidency, which might scare Canadians away from voting for a Conservative government. Canadians might decide they are not after all absolutely beyond tired of looking at and listening to Trudeau, though ten years is a long time to lead a government and pretty much the outer edge of the best-by date. None of this, nor events we cannot contemplate, are going going to change much.

I should note before someone else does that there are a couple of notable examples in Canada of leaders taking over long-tenured federal governments only to get crushed in an ensuing general election. True, but so what? Calculate your odds and roll the dice.

Whatever one thinks of Justin Trudeau, his time in the political spotlight appears to be coming to an end and I strongly suspect there are many Liberal candidates, both incumbents and challengers, who hope he takes the hint and rides off into the sunset giving someone else a chance to lead.

On June 19^th, House Bill 71 was signed into law in Louisiana by Gov. Jeff Landry. This means that starting next year, all elementary and secondary schools as well as universities receiving state funding will have to display the Ten Commandments in every classroom

Also not surprising is that three organizations announced they will work together on a challenge to the new law in court. Americans United for Separation of Church and State, the American Civil Liberties Union, and the Freedom from the Religion Foundation issued a join statement saying in part:

“We are preparing a lawsuit to challenge H.B. 71. The law violates the separation of church and state and is blatantly unconstitutional. The First Amendment promises that we all get to decide for ourselves what religious beliefs, if any, to hold and practice, without pressure from the government. Politicians have no business imposing their preferred religious doctrine on students and families in public schools.

As Steve Benen rightly points out “it is easy to imagine this [challenge] succeeding. After all, Louisiana’s new Ten Commandment’s law is a legal, political and theological mess.” The new law not only runs afoul of the First Amendment but also the Supreme Court precedent established in a ruling in 1980 in Stone v. Graham. In that case, the court found that a Kentucky statute requiring school officials to post a copy of the Ten Commandments violated the Constitution’s Establishment Clause, commonly understood to refer to the separation of church and state.

Of course, what makes this all so interesting is that there seem be a number of Supreme Court Justices who care little for precedent and who are shockingly amenable to a theocratic approach to American jurisprudence.

But don’t take my word for it, listen to Louisiana Gov. Landry who said a few days before signing the measure into law, “I can’t wait to be sued.”

Perhaps he can’t wait because no matter what the Court chooses to do, Landry will be a star among the party faithful. Or maybe he can’t wait because like many of us he understands that it is unclear what the Court will choose to do on any given case. Add to that the real danger that a number of the justices might twist themselves into knots to promote a Christian nationalist agenda. We can only imagine how the law might be bent to make that happen – or maybe we can’t.